UC Davis Aggies scouting report
It’s time to start conference play and the Griz get out the gate with what promises to be a tremendous first test, on the road to UC Davis. In a game where Davis will most likely be favored the Griz will need to play as close to a perfect game as possible to come away with the win here. Davis has shown flashes of great talent, has some eye popping stats, and has also shown some traits of weaknesses and concerns. With the way these two offenses are playing right now, this game could be a shootout.
UC Davis Aggies 2-2
13-27 loss @ Cal: The Cal Bears are now one of just (I believe) two Pac12 schools that are still undefeated and ranked 15th in the country. In this game UCD jumped out early, holding a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. From there Cal started to get things rolling but kept stalling out in the redzone and having to opt for fieldgoals instead, at the half Cal had a 13-10 lead. In the 3rd quarter UCD tied it up 13-13, but Cal was able to add two more TDs and keep UCD from scoring again. Most of UCD’s 2nd half possessions were forgettable, after a made fieldgoal, they went 3 and out, 3 and out, lost fumble, turnover on downs, punt after 4 plays. Cal was very balanced, 233 rushing / 236 passing. Cal was also terribly sloppy, 4 turnovers
38-35 win @ San Diego: This game’s been talked about a lot, USD was expected to get stomped by Davis, when instead a controversial ending to the game turned out to be the difference between who won this game. UCD 4 times in this game would grab a 1 score lead and then give way to a responding San Diego score to tie it back up. In the 4th UCD would go up 31-28 on a fieldgoal, and USD would answer with a TD to go up 35-31. With the ball back Davis goes down the field and scores to go up 38-35 with just about 3:00 to go. San Diego would march all the way down the field and on a goal-to-go situation would fumble the ball at the goal-line and into the endzone. Upon confirmation the refs called it a fumble and touchback. Since it was at San Diego and their conference does not have instant replay it couldn’t be reviewed, video on twitter makes it look like the player might have broken the plane – but to be fair there was no sideline camera shot. Both teams had 3 turn overs, UCD did out-gain San Diego in the game by about 120 yards.
41-13 win vs Lehigh: Hapless Lehigh really wasn’t much of a fight for UCD. Davis ran for just 91 yards but passed for over 400 in the game. One interesting stat, UCD was 6-9 converting 4th downs in the game.
16-27 loss @ NDSU: UCD was in this game for quite a while, holding a 10-7 lead in the 2nd quarter and staying within 1 score until 2:50 left in the game. We all know NDSU’s style, they don’t usually blow teams out, but rather grind out wins and they did that in this game too. NDSU had 200 on the ground and about 150 passing, while UCD had another day with over 300 passing. What appears to have really hurt UCD was 3 interceptions thrown. One INT eventually lead to NDSU’s last score. Another was at the NDSU 2 yard line. UCD also recovered an NDSU fumble on the Bison 25 yard line but went backwards with the possession and lost the ball on downs.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game Montana (327 for UCD vs 329 for UM)
Rushing yards per game Montana (107 for UCD vs 137 for UM)
Total offense Montana (434 for UCD vs 465 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game UC Davis (209 for UCD vs 324 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (166 for UCD vs 123 for UM)
Total defense UC Davis (375 for UCD vs 447 for UM)
4 for Montana and 2 for UC Davis
Offense points scored Montana (27 for UCD vs 35.5 for UM)
Defense points allowed Montana (25.5 for UCD vs 24 for UM)
Turnover margin UC Davis – (+2 for UCD / +1 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % UC Davis (87% for UCD vs 67% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (8.7 yards for UCD vs 26 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Montana (18.4 yards for UCD vs 25.8 yards for UM)
T.O.P. Montana (28:00 for UCD vs 30:58 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Montana (82% UCD / 65% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (59% UCD / 65% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (34% for UCD / 52% for UM)
3rd down defense Montana – (44% allowed for UCD vs 29% allowed for UM)
This kind of surprised me, Montana adds 9 while Davis adds just 2. That puts a total for Montana at 13 to just 4 for Davis. Some of the stats are really close, and one could point out UCD’s stats come from playing both Cal and NDSU – tougher overall opponents than UM’s general OOC. However…
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Players to Watch:
#15 Jake Maier, QB – The 6-0, 200 pound senior QB and pre-season MVP is averaging almost 308 yards passing per game, he’s got 7 TDs so far this year, but also 5 INTs. His rushing yards gained sits at 4, another pocket QB like the Monmouth QB.
#34 Ulonzo Gilliam, Jr, RB – A breakout player as a freshman last year, Gilliam is picking up right where he left off. He’s the main feature back in the offense with 358 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs this season so far. He’s also 3rd on the team in receptions with 18, but he’s only got 77 yards on those catches – mostly a safety outlet for Maier.
#2 Jared Harrell, WR – One of UCD’s dudes in the passing game last year and he’s back at it again this year. He’s got 280 receiving and 1 TD this season so far.
#6 Carson Crawford, WR – a 5-10, 165 receiver he’s actually leading the team in both yards with 317 and TDs with 2.
#87 Wes Preece, TE – a 6-5, 238 pound guy, he’s got 183 yards this season and 2 TDs himself.
#45 Eric Flowers, LB – Leading the team in tackles so far with 24, he’s got 2.5 TFLs and 1 sack this season.
#53 Nick Eaton, LB – Eaton is a younger guy but leads the team right now in sacks with 2.5, he’s forced 2 fumbles, has 3.5 total TFLs and 18 tackles.
#21 Devon King, S – King’s 2nd best on the team with 23 tackles, he’s also got 2 interceptions this season already AND he’s forced 2 fumbles as well.
#36 Connor Airey, LB – Airey is tied with King for 2nd on the team in tackles with 23, he’s got a ½ sack and has recovered a fumble this season.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Ball control. UCD has shown their rush defense is susceptible and they’ve allowed a few of their opponents to really hold onto the ball and control the clock. The Grizzly running game will need to have it’s best day yet, slow the game down, and just smash UCD’s defense in the face over and over and over and over.
2. Win in the red zone. I was surprised to see Montana having the edge in both red zone defense and scoring on offense over UCD. If they can hold this trend in this game, it’ll pay off. Turn RZ trips into TDs and force more fieldgoals or turnovers from UCD when the reach the red zone.
3. Not only continue the 3rd down trend, but be ready on 4th down. UCD this season has successfully converted 11 of 19 4th down conversions. The Griz last week allowed Monmouth to go 3-4 on 4th. Be ready for an Aggies team that will opt more to go for it than try a long fieldgoal or punt the ball. On 3rd down the numbers early suggest Montana should have advantages to keep converting and making stops, let’s keep that rolling.
4. Survive the initial surge. UCD has scored 42% of all their points scored this season in the first quarter alone – while only allowing 14 points on defense. If the Griz can buck this trend look for a great start to the game for Montana.
5. Cash in on special teams. Once again I see some opportunities for Jerry and Malik. UCD’s return yards allowed are pretty hefty. If given the chance, let’s flip the field on these guys.
6. Hang on to the ball. UCD has recovered 7 fumbles this season already. Watch for them to really be ripping at the ball.
7. That said, win the turnover battle. This is going to come in many ways. The trio of Robertson/Hauck/Sandry need to grab a pick or two and help out the corners. Meanwhile Sneed needs to take what’s given to him, not put himself into situations of forced INTs or a fumble like we saw against Monmouth where he probably just should have slid rather than get pummeled.
8. 40+ points. I think this game is going to be a high scoring one. Davis’s pass game vs Montana’s pass defense will get them on the board a bunch. Montana’s offense, 3rd down, and RZ efficiency suggests they’ll be able to score a lot too. I think this game very well could be a shootout right to the end.
It’s early in the season still and this is our first conference game, by no means is this a “must-win” but we know that the Griz are going to need some big signature wins to show growth, to build their resume, and to keep their momentum going. I think this game has opportunity written all over it and I’m hopeful Montana is ready to take it. The stats actually give favor to Montana, but can they execute at a higher level than we saw against Monmouth? If so, they can (and should) win. If we get a sloppy-ish Montana team that can’t keep UCD out of the endzone… it won’t be pretty.
My hope is this, that Montana can give UCD a dose of what they served up for us last season. Montana was up 21-3 at the half… and gave way to 46 unanswered UCD points to get blown out at home. This year UCD’s stats show they’ve been giving up more and more points as the game goes on. Add in that most all of this team was here last year, they remember how damn frustrating it was to see a game like that totally fall apart, and they want revenge. I’m going to go 45-41… Griz win.
(cover pic via GoGriz.com)
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