Big Sky Week 3 Power Rankings: Bobcats Rising
There’s been some reshuffling in the Big Sky Podcast Network Power Rankings this week. Big wins (we’re talking about you, Montana State), ugly wins (welcome back to the bottom, Idaho), and narrow losses gave this week’s version a facelift. As always, votes come from BSPN contributors, and Brian Marceau explains why.
The Filet Mignons
#1 – Weber State
Record: 1-1
Last Week: Win vs. Cal Poly (41-24)
This Week: at Nevada
If the Wildcats can turn in a few repeat offensive performances like this, Weber State will be near unbeatable in the FCS. Jake Constantine is still not much of a difference maker (17/23, 137 yards, 1 TD), but he did enough to support Josh Davis’ ground work (14 carries, 129 yards, 2 TDs) for Weber State to stretch their 17-10 halftime lead to 38-17 early in the fourth quarter.
Again, the Wildcats defense was great, limiting Cal Poly to 346 yards of total offense—just more than half of the Mustangs’ week one output against San Diego. Weber State won the turnover battle, allowed a mere 16 first downs, and killed Cal Poly in time of possession (35:15 to 24:45). The jury is in—when the Wildcats score around 30 or more, they’re unbeatable. Expect Weber State to keep it close on the road this week against FBS Nevada.
#2 – EWU
Record: 1-1
Last Week: Win vs. Lindenwood (DII, 59-31)
This Week: at Jacksonville State
Head coach Aaron Best can’t be ecstatic about the 374 yards and 31 points his Eagles surrendered to Division II Lindenwood, but we’re not reading much into a game EWU led 31-0. Eric Barriere put up video game stats (32/46, 522 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs), and a running back committee contributed another three touchdowns in a game that was never in doubt.
EWU has the Big Sky’s game of the week this Saturday on the road against No. 17 Jacksonville State. A road win would boost both EWU’s and the Big Sky’s playoff aspirations. A second premier Big Sky win (Montana State over SEMO being the first) will buy the Eagles margin for error during the conference season, and the Big Sky respect come playoff time.
The Ribeyes
#3 (Tie) – Montana State
Record: 1-1
Last Week: Win vs. Southeast Missouri State (38-17)
This Week: at Western Illinois
There is no athlete in the Big Sky as impressive as Troy Anderson. He’s a defensive captain and linebacker, but was again the offensive catalyst of Montana State’s dominating win over No. 12 Southeast Missouri State. Anderson rushed for 102 yards and 2 TDs on just six attempts, Isaiah Ifanse added another 114 yards on the ground, and the Bobcat defense held SEMO to 245 total yards and 3/15 on third down conversions. The blowout is a signature win for Montana State, and evidence that Jeff Choate and the Bobcats’ preseason top 15 ranking was more than deserved.
There was some rocky news in Bozeman as well—redshirt freshman Casey Bauman completed six passes for only 32 first half yards, and finished the game completing just over 50 percent of his attempts (13/25 for 136 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs), while Ifanse sat out the second half with an undisclosed injury. That said, Montana State now owns the Big Sky’s best win of the young 2019 season, and against SEMO, the Bobcat defense was on par with something we’d expect from Weber State. Through the air, SEMO averaged just 3.9 yards per pass (13/29, 114 yards), and had just as little success on the ground (37 carries for 131 yards).
With the rough part of their nonconference schedule through, Montana State has a great chance to open up Big Sky play at 3-1. The Bobcats should be heavy favorites against Western Illinois, who opened the season with a loss on the road to the same North Alabama Lions who lost 17-61 this week in Missoula. Expect more of the same on the defensive end from the Bobcats, and if Bauman can provide just enough threat through the air, Anderson and Ifanse will be too much for all but the best of the FCS.
#3 (Tie) – UC Davis
Record: 1-1
Last Week: Win at San Diego (38-35)
This Week: vs. Lehigh
The Aggies’ defense looked much less impressive in their week two win over non-scholarship San Diego than it did in week one against FBS Cal. San Diego held onto the ball for 35:45, and accrued four more first downs than UC Davis (27 to 23), which is why the FCS top five Aggies needed late game heroics from Ulonzo Gilliam (21 carries, 135 yards, 2 TDs) and a goal line stand to escape a San Diego team that’d been handled by Cal Poly the week prior. Otherwise, Jake Maier looked almost like the All-Big Sky quarterback we expect (29/38, 359 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs), and the Aggies had no trouble moving the ball (539 total yards). Hosting a not-particularly-strong Lehigh this week is the Aggies’ last chance tune up before traveling to North Dakota State in two weeks, followed by their conference opener at home against Montana.
#5 – Montana
Record: 2-0
Last Week: Win vs. North Alabama (61-17)
This Week: at Oregon
For Montana to return to the FCS playoffs for the first time in three years, it was essential for the Grizzlies to give themselves breathing room in their murderous conference schedule with nonconference FCS wins. Two weeks into the season, that’s exactly what Montana has done.
Against South Dakota, the Grizzlies’ passing game looked elite while the running game struggled. Against North Alabama, Montana’s offense was closer to balanced (296 passing yards and 234 rushing yards). The Grizzlies have no ideal yardage ratio, but if we’re looking for progress, the Montana rushing attack was a weapon in week two in a way it was not in week one. Part of that has to do with the attention North Alabama gave to Sammy Akem and Samouri Toure, but Montana responded to a rocky first half (down 16-17) the way an elite playoff team should—they found the next gear.
Not all the fireworks came from the offense. Jerry Louie-McGee turned a third quarter punt into a 74 yard score, and the Montana defense forced three turnovers (and four total) during a second half shutout of the Lions. This week’s scheduled loss at Oregon will mean nothing if the Grizzlies leave Eugene healthy. More important is their final nonconference matchup at home against Monmouth. Finishing their nonconference schedule with three FCS wins means Montana will only need to pick up one win against the combination of UC Davis, EWU, Weber State, or Montana State, provided the Griz hold serve against the rest of their mid-to-bottom tier Big Sky slate, to hit the minimum threshold of eight wins expected of playoff teams this season. With play like we’ve seen the first two weeks, sneaking into the playoffs should be Montana’s 2019 floor. The Grizzlies are dangerous already. If these guys can string together four quarters a couple times, a Big Sky title is within reach.
Is that a New York Strip, or a Sirloin?
#6 – NAU
Record: 1-1
Last Week: Loss at Arizona (41-65)
This Week: vs. Western New Mexico (DII)
Most of the damage didn’t come until the Lumberjacks trailed 51-10, but NAU showed it might have one of the Big Sky’s better offenses in scoring 28 second half points against FBS Arizona. Even if those four touchdowns came against backups, Case Cookus had another strong outing (28/48, 373 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) and both Hendrix Johnson and Brandon Porter (15 combined receptions for 176 yards) showed NAU has the skill position players to stretch Big Sky defenses. There’s still no running game to speak of, and we’ll learn nothing when the Lumberjacks blowout Division II Western New Mexico this week, but two weeks in, NAU looks like a playoff contender.
The London Broils
#7 – Sacramento State
Record: 1-1
Last Week: at Arizona State (7-19)
This Week: vs. Northern Colorado
The surprise of the week came in Tempe, where Sacramento State trailed FBS Arizona State 7-12 with six minutes left in the fourth quarter, before surrendering a late touchdown to fall 7-19. A contest that close is a victory for the Hornets, whose defense allowed only 15 first downs. If that defense is real, Sacramento State is going to shatter the bottom shelf expectations most had for a team that won zero Big Sky games in 2018. This week, the Hornets host Northern Colorado in a game that should show whether or not Sacramento State has moved into the Big Sky’s middle class. Expect Elijah Dotson to look more like himself in Greeley than he did in Tempe (11 carries, 32 yards).
#8 – Cal Poly
Record: 1-1
Last Week: Loss at Weber State (24-41)
This Week: at Oregon State
The big plays Cal Poly needed to beat San Diego last week predictably weren’t there against Weber. That’s not to say the Mustangs looked bad in their road loss to the Wildcats—Cal Poly stayed competitive through the first half, but the Mustangs just do not have the defense to survive against better teams if their offense isn’t winning the time of possession battle (0-2 in TOP in 2019) or scoring on big plays (six TDs on plays longer than 30 yards vs. San Diego, two vs. Weber State). Two weeks in, Cal Poly looks like a solid middle of the pack Big Sky team—a threat to make any Saturday tough, but well behind the league’s six playoff contenders.
#9 Portland State
Record: 1-1
Last Week: Win vs. Simon Fraser (DII, 70-7)
This Week: at Boise State
There’s little to glean from Portland State’s 63 point win over a weak Simon Fraser. The Vikings’ defense was strong for a second consecutive week (113 total yards allowed), but there’s no extrapolation we can make on the offensive end. At best, coach Bruce Barnum’s last couple years of highly touted recruiting classes might be turning a corner, but with Portland State’s final nonconference games coming against FBS Boise State and NAIA Eastern Oregon, we’ll know nothing about the Vikings until a couple weeks into the Big Sky season.
The Expired Spams
#10 – Idaho State
Record: 1-0
Last Week: Win vs. Western Colorado (DII, 38-13)
This Week: at Utah
Coach Rob Phenicie did something Idaho’s Paul Petrino has not: pick a quarterback. Junior Matt Stuck showed he has an arm in the Bengals’ ugly 38-13 win (385 yards passing, 4 TDs, 1 INT), but just over 50 percent accuracy (22/41 pass attempts) against the least talented defense Idaho State will face this season doesn’t exactly signal the second coming. Overall, there’s not much else to take from the Bengals beating a DII squad in a closer game than the final margin indicates. We’ll learn just as little next week from a scheduled loss to the University of Utah.
#11 (Tie) – Idaho
Record: 1-1
Last Week: Win vs. Central Washington (DII, 41-31)
This Week: at Wyoming
It cannot be stressed how awful the Vandals looked in their narrow win over Division II Central Washington. In spite of Idaho’s defense surrendering a total of 15 first downs, and forcing Central Washington to 3-14 on third down conversions, this was a 34-31 game with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. Sure, the athleticism of the Vandals’ offensive line and rushing game eventually wore down CWU, but this win was both alarming and embarrassing for an Idaho team just two season’s removed from FBS play.
If not for the athletic department’s significant deficit, coach Petrino should be looking for a new job. Petrino has the highest base salary in the Big Sky by more than $100,000 per year, and for that premium he’s delivered 23 wins in six years (plus two games) to go with 50 losses. Against CWU, we saw all the trademarks of a Petrino roster: great athletes, good individual performances (ex: wideout Jeff Cotton’s 16 catches for 145 yards and 2 TDs), but a whole is always significantly less than the sum of its parts. That’s vintage Petrino football throughout the five losing season’s produced in Petrino’s six year tenure, and with his team’s continued lack of offense while he starts his hardworking, intelligent, but just not Division I athlete son at quarterback, the Vandals will need a defense comparable to Weber State to think about .500, and at this point, that’s not what Idaho has. With FBS Wyoming next week, followed by EWU at home the next, Idaho will undoubtedly end nonconference play at 1-3, and if those next two rough games are not at least competitive, fan support in the Kibbie Dome will be near nonexistent for the rest of the season.
#11 (Tie) – Northern Colorado
Record: 0-2
Last Week: Loss at Washington State (17-59)
This Week: at Sacramento State
Northern Colorado’s blowout at Washington State was the outcome all expected, but the Bears delivered a few moments of hope in the 59-17 loss. Jakob Knipp did not shine (8-15, 128 yards, zero TDs), but Northern Colorado’s ground game looked stronger against Washington State than it did the week before against a much weaker San Jose State. Milo Hall and Juleen Ison combined for 180 yards and a touchdown on 44 carries, with Cole Ingersoll also contributing a score on a 28 yard rush. This week’s matchup at Sacramento State looks tougher now than it did a couple weeks ago, and will be the first chance to see what kind of hope both teams will have during the conference season.
#13 – Southern Utah
Record: 0-1
Last Week: Loss at Northern Iowa (14-34)
This Week: Stephen F. Austin
For a second straight week, Southern Utah was not competitive. Give credit to Northern Iowa—they’re a tough FCS team that looks like they’ll find a spot in the 2019 playoff bracket, but the Thunderbirds made it clear while trailing 34-0 with three minutes left in the third quarter: this team is miles from their 2017 FCS playoff team. Without the ability to move the ball on the ground (101 yards on 46 attempts) or through the air (126 yards on 31 attempts), there will be no rebound for Southern Utah in 2019.
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About the Author
Brian Marceau Brian Marceau writes fiction, teaches, and covers University of Idaho men's basketball for Tubs At The Club, all while voluntarily enduring Idaho Vandal football games. He is a retired connoisseur of $4-and-under wines, an unrepentant coffee snob, and a follower of Big Sky football and basketball.
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