Griz, Cats towards top of Big Sky after two weeks of conference play
Now that teams have 3 or 4 conference games under their belts, the Montana Mint’s Brian Marceau breaks down the state of Big Sky Conference basketball.
The How Long Until Football Season Tier
Sacramento State
Record: 6-6
Conference: 0-3
Last Week: vs. UNC (65-70), at Montana (56-87), at MSU (70-84)
Upcoming: vs. ISU (1/12), at NAU (1/17), at SUU (1/19)
Key Players (Conference only stats):
Marcus Graves, Guard, Sr.
13.3ppg, 4.3 apg, 31.3 fg%
Joshua Patton, Center, Jr.
10.7ppg, 63.6 fg%, 4.3 fouls per game
Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa, Guard, Jr.
9.3ppg, 35.5 fg%, 26.3 3fg%
Coming into conference play it wasn’t a secret Sacramento State would rely on their defense to win games, as they played in a total of one Division I nonconference game with an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) above 100, and multiple with ratings below 90. Through their first three conference games, that defense has purged points (80.3 per game) while surrendering the worst field goal percentage in the Big Sky (51%), and the Hornets simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up. Their top two scoring guards (Marcus Graves and Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa) are shooting a combined 33% on just over 26 shots per game, and center Joshua Patton has collected only two more rebounds (16) than fouls (14). Fortunately for the Hornets and Coach Brian Katz, after opening against Northern Colorado then traveling to the Montana schools, much of conference play will be easier than the first two weeks.
Sacramento State plays in Pocatello against an up-and-down Idaho State who leads the Big Sky in scoring defense, though much of that can be attributed to the soft opening schedule the Bengals limped through. At NAU and at SUU are both winnable games for the Hornets that feel like must-wins for all parties. The SUU defense in particular (87.8ppg allowed) may be best cure for the Sacramento St. offensive woes, though SUU undoubtedly feels similarly about the Hornets (80.3ppg allowed).
Southern Utah
Record: 6-7
Conference: 1-3
Last Week: vs. MSU (62-92), vs. Montana (76-89), at ISU (68-88), at Weber St. (90-82 OT)
Upcoming: vs. NAU (1/12), vs. PSU (1/17), vs. Sac. St. (1/19)
Key Players:
Cameron Oluyitan, Guard, Jr.
14.3ppg, 4.8rpg
Brandon Better, Guard, Sr.
12ppg, 29.7 fg%, 9.3fga
Jacob Calloway, Forward, Jr.
10.3ppg, 7rpg, 63.6 2fg%
Southern Utah opened the season with a blowout loss at home to Montana State, which turned out to not be the worst news for the Thunderbirds during the first two weeks of conference play. Dwayne Morgan, the former top 25 recruit and the Thunderbirds’ best shot at an All-Big Sky performer, will miss the remainder of the season due to a shoulder surgery. In the three games Morgan played, SUU was 3-0 and looked promising with a win at Seattle University (12-5). Since his injury, the Thunderbirds are 3-7.
Just about every statistical metric for SUU is ugly. In conference play the Thunderbirds have the worst scoring defense, the second worst scoring margin (-13.8 per game), the worst field goal and three point percentages, the worst rebounding margin, and they dish out the fewest assists. The closest thing to a bright side for Thunderbird fans is their first four games were against all solid-to-good teams. SUU’s overtime win at Weber State, where four of five starters scored 15 or more points while the Wildcats shot 35% from the field, including 32% from inside the arch, may be the highlight of the Thunderbirds’ year.
The next two weeks should be easier on the Thunderbirds than their opening two, though dropping all three games in Cedar City is absolutely on the table. Travel partner NAU looked awful in nonconference play, but thus far has only succumbed to league favorites Montana and Weber State. The matchup with Portland State pits the two fastest pace teams against each other, though the Vikings have been doing much more with their extra possessions than the Thunderbirds. At home against Sacramento State, SUU’s neighbor at the bottom of the Big Sky in scoring defense, scoring margin, three point percentage, and opponents’ field goal percentage, someone has to win.
Eastern Washington
Record: 3-12
Conference: 1-3
Last Week: vs. Weber St. (72-84), vs. ISU (65-55), at Idaho (71-74), at UNC (63-75)
Upcoming: vs. Montana (1/10), vs. MSU (1/19)
Key Players:
Mason Peatling, Forward, Jr.
19.3ppg, 7.3rpg, 58.5 fg%
Jesse Hunt, Forward, Sr.
11.8ppg, 7.8rpg, 37.2 fg%
Jacob Davison, Guard, So.
10pg, 32.6 fg%, 13.3 3fg%
By the end of the first four weeks of conference play, EWU will have already faced all three of the teams contending for the Big Sky regular season championship. After stumbling through the league’s toughest nonconference schedule, this has to be welcome news for Eagles’ fans. Also, after sitting out all but one nonconference games due to injury, forward Mason Peatling has more than doubled his scoring output from his sophomore Honorable Mention All-Big Sky season (up to 19.3ppg in conference), making him one of the top five Big Sky forwards through the first two weeks of conference action.
That’s about where the positives end for EWU. They did come away with a surprise win against Idaho State, but otherwise the Eagles have struggled. EWU has the second worst field goal percentage defense and shoots the third worst percentage in conference, but those numbers are actually worse than they appear. Subtract Peatling’s 58.5% shooting in Big Sky play, and the rest of the roster shoots a combined 36%. Those offensive struggles appear pervasive, as EWU has only four total Division I games with an offensive rating at or more than 100 (they are 2-2 in those games). Stats like that point to a team needing to lean on its defense, but the Eagles have only three Division I games with a defensive rating below 107. Their lone conference win against Idaho State looks more a product the Bengals struggling (16 turnovers, 22 second half points) than the Eagles making them look bad.
Games against the Montana schools at home do not look like a cure for the Eagles’ struggles, though they do have considerable time off between hosting Montana, then Montana State (nine days between games). Since the Eagles are getting maybe the least out of any team in the conference from their backcourt, the forward combination of Peatling and senior Jesse Hunt will have to be at its best for EWU to pull off wins in either game. Montana State is the better matchup of the two in that regard, but considering the Montana schools represent the conference’s top two scoring offenses, the Eagles will have to find a defensive identity we have not seen to pick up their third Division I win of the year.
Idaho
Record: 4-11
Conference: 1-3
Last Week: vs. ISU (55-72), vs. Weber St. (87-93), vs. EWU (74-71), at UNC (79-83 OT)
Upcoming: vs. MSU (1/10), vs. Montana (1/19)
Key Players:
Trevon Allen, Guard, Jr.
17.5ppg, 4.3 rpg, 54.9 fg%
Cameron Tyson, Guard, Fr.
17.3ppg, 46.4 3fg%, 7 3fga
Jared Rodriguez, Forward, Fr.
12.3ppg, 6.8rpg, 47.1 fg%
An already young Idaho squad became younger when Coach Don Verlin announced forward Marquell Fraser, one of two juniors on the Vandal roster (there are no seniors), would miss the rest of for the season due to hip surgery. Idaho started their conference season further shorthanded with an ankle injury limiting starting center Scott Blakeney and illness keeping leading scorer Trevon Allen from practicing the week heading into their blowout loss to Idaho State, where freshman Cameron Tyson was the only Vandal to hit double figures (19 pts). In the next three games Idaho showed their fans a mix of frustration and promise. Against Weber State, Idaho shot 53.6% from the field and 52.6% from three, but managed to lose after surrendering 52 first half points and trailing by more than 20. Against EWU, the Vandals shot 50% from the field and 52.6% from three, but were a missed EWU three from overtime in Moscow. At Northern Colorado, the Vandals shot 49% from the field, 56.3% from three, and had multiple chances to ice the game in regulation, but left Greeley with another loss.
The main culprit for Idaho is team defense, where they surrender an astounding number of easy points. On the year, the Vandals have one total Division I game with a defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) below 100. That is how the Vandals can have an incredible offensive rating of 124.3 against Weber State, yet come away with another loss. The Vandals’ opening schedule is home heavy, and the time off between games (five days off before Montana State, then nine days off before Montana) will give Coach Verlin time to strategize in a way he will not have for the rest of the season. Both Montana schools are rough matchups for Idaho, though the Grizzlies are by far the worst due to the forward play of Jamar Akoh and Sayeed Pridgett. Idaho is showing signs of strength that could blossom by next season, but for now, starting the season with five of their first six games at home and coming away with one total win is a real possibility.
The We Might Be Okay Tier
Portland State
Record: 6-8
Conference: 1-2
Last Week: vs. UNC (60-73), at MSU (88-98), at Montana (77-74 OT)
Upcoming: vs. Weber St. (1/12), at SUU (1/17), at NAU (1/19)
Key Players:
Holland Woods, Guard, So.
17.3ppg, 4.7apg, 34.3 fg%
Michael Mayhew, Guard, Sr.
11.3ppg, 50 3fg%, 6 3fga
Michael Nuga, Guard, Jr.
8.7ppg, 29 fg%, 27.3 3fg%
Portland State lost their final three nonconference games and rode that wave to opening conference losses against Northern Colorado and Montana State, with preseason All-Big Sky guard Holland Woods shooting 25% from the field and 16.6% from three. Just like during football, Missoula was where the Vikings went to rehabilitate their season. Woods put up maybe his best stat line of his career (28 points on 6-of-11 shooting) including the three to push the game to overtime.
How the Vikings handle a mostly favorable slate is contingent upon whether Portland State can find a way to have both their star player and role players perform simultaneously, something that has not happened in their opening Big Sky games. In spite of their pace, through conference play Portland State has a midlevel offense and a bottom-two defense, meaning a matchup at home against Weber State is unlikely to yield Viking Pavilion’s first conference win. Games at Southern Utah and NAU against the fourth worst and third worst field goal percentage defenses will give us a better understanding as to whether the offensive inconsistency Portland State has shown is a flaw or a feature of this year’s squad.
Northern Arizona
Record: 4-10
Conference: 2-2
Last Week: vs. Montana (73-86), vs. MSU (74-68), at Weber St. (52-77), at ISU (81-69)
Upcoming: at SUU (1/12), vs. Sac. St. (1/17), vs. PSU (1/19)
Key Players:
Carlos Hines, Guard, So.
11.3ppg, 5.3apg, 35.6 fg%
Jonathan Andre, Forward, So.
10.3ppg, 9rpg, 38.5 fg%
Brooks DeBisschop, Forward, Jr.
10ppg, 6.7rpg, 61.9 fg%
Two weeks into conference play, NAU already owns as many Big Sky wins as they earned in all of last season. Gauging what that means for the Lumberjacks is not clear. A different player has led NAU in scoring in all four conference games, with four and five players scoring in double figures in wins against Montana State and Idaho State, respectively. In the each loss, only two Lumberjacks scored in double figures. With no player jumping out of the box score, including two starting guards (Carlos Hines and Jonathan Andre) shooting a combined 36.9% on 21 shots per game in conference, NAU will be riding an offense-by-committee to overcome a defense that has finished with a defensive rating under 100 twice all year and over 112 seven times.
The Lumberjacks favorable upcoming schedule should shed further light on whether the two early conference wins were an aberration or whether NAU’s youth just needed some time to find their sea legs. Games on the road against Southern Utah and at home against Sacramento State give the Lumberjacks a fighting chance to equal, then beat last season’s win total (5 wins). Portland State’s pace and offense will be a struggle for NAU to match, though the Viking defense could be what the Lumberjacks need to shoot more like they did against Idaho State (56.3%), instead of what we saw in losses to Montana (37%) and Weber State (31%).
Idaho State
Record: 6-7
Conference: 2-2
Last Week: at Idaho (72-55), at EWU (55-65), vs. SUU (88-68), vs. NAU (69-81)
Upcoming: at Sac St. (1/12), at Weber St. (1/17), vs. UNC (1/21)
Key Players:
Balint Mocsan, Guard, Jr.
15.3ppg, 50 3fg%, 8.5 3fga
Gary Chivichyan, Guard, Jr.
13ppg, 46.4 3fg%, 7 3fga
Brandon Boyd, Guard, Jr.
11.3ppg, 5apg, 32.7 fg%
No Big Sky team should be more disappointed with their opening four games than Idaho State. In spite of as soft a run as they will have throughout the rest of the season, the junior-heavy Bengals sit at .500. 16 turnovers and only 22 second half points did Idaho State in against EWU, while allowing NAU to shoot 56% from the field compared to the Bengals’ 36.5% pointed the way to their second conference loss. Junior point guard Brandon Boyd, their leading scorer last season and through nonconference play this year, is shooting 27% from the field in games outside of Cedar City, which is part of what negated the blazing start to Big Sky play from fellow guard Balint Mocsan, who is hitting 50% from three on more than eight attempts per game.
The next two weeks do not get easier for Idaho State. After traveling to Sacramento State, the Bengals face two of the three best teams in the conference. While the easy stat to lean on for Idaho State is their penchant to shoot from deep (their 47 made threes leads the league), the Bengals’ success this year has been dictated by their defense, where they’ve finished with a defensive rating below 100 in every Division I win and over 100 in every loss. Against the second (Weber State) and fourth (Northern Colorado) best scoring teams in the league, Idaho State will have to play at a level we have not seen from them through the young conference season to move back to the right side of .500.
Montana State
Record: 6-8
Conference: 3-1
Last Week: at SUU (92-62), at NAU (68-74), vs. PSU (98-88), vs. Sac St. (84-70)
Upcoming: at Idaho (1/10), vs. UNC (1/14), at EWU (1/19)
Key Players:
Harald Frey, Guard, Jr.
20.8ppg, 5apg, 6fta
Tyler Hall, Guard, Sr.
17.8ppg, 4.5rpg, 38.7 3fg%
Devin Kirby, Forward, So.
11ppg, 7.5rpg, 52 fg%
No team has seen a bigger turnaround from their nonconference play than Montana State. The answer to why the Bobcats have looked so much better is found on the offensive end, and surprisingly it is not strictly Tyler Hall related. At SUU, five Bobcats scored in double figures, three of which were not backcourt starters Hall or Harald Frey. Against Portland State, four players reached double-figures, and when Hall had his second single-digit scoring output of the year against Sacramento St. (the first came at University of Indiana), four Bobcats scored in double-figures. In the loss at NAU, one player other than Hall or Frey scored in double figures. Provided Hall and Frey continue their improved shooting (48% in conference vs. 38% nonconference), the Bobcats win when their (thus far) league best offense is balanced.
Through four games, Montana State has had their two best defensive showings of the season (at SUU and vs. Sac. St.), though it’s unclear how much of that is the Bobcats coming together and how much Montana State’s current defensive success relies on a soft opening slate. Games at Idaho and EWU in the next two weeks should be favorable to MSU, with EWU’s backcourt being a matchup they can and must feast upon to overcome the Eagles’ frontcourt advantage. Hosting Northern Colorado is a test Vegas will expect Montana State to fail, though again, no team has seen a greater uptick in both offensive and defensive output since conference play began than the Bobcats. The Golden Bears will give the Bobcats their first chance to show whether we need to add a fourth team to the discussion about Big Sky contenders.
The Members Only Tier
Weber State
Record: 9-6
Conference: 3-1
Last Week: at EWU (84-72), at Idaho (93-87), vs. NAU (77-52), vs. SUU (82-90 OT)
Upcoming: at PSU (1/12), vs. ISU (1/17), vs. UNC (1/19)
Key Players:
Jerrick Harding, Guard, Jr.
20.8ppg, 42.9 fg%, 34.8 3fg%
Cody John, Guard, Jr.
15.3ppg, 46.7 fg%, 38.5 3fg%
Brekkott Chapman, Forward, Sr.
14.3ppg, 12.3rpg, 47.8 fg%
Weber State opened with a soft four games and came away with one fewer victory than they should have. The loss should be less concerning for Wildcat fans—most teams lose games when they shoot 35% from the field and three of their top four players (Jerrick Harding, Zach Braxton, and Cody John) foul out—than the up-and-down play vs. EWU and Idaho. Against the Eagles, Weber State trailed by 13 halfway through the first before walking away to an easy win, while against Idaho, the Wildcats allowed the Vandals to shoot 65% in the second half and almost completely erase a 25 point deficit. In spite of the blemish at home against the Thunderbirds, Weber State has four starters making an early case for All-Big Sky honors. It will take the conference’s elite, or an off night from multiple players, for the Wildcats to stumble through almost any conference game.
The key to Weber State’s success both in and out of conference has been offensive execution. When Weber State’s offensive rating is above 100, the Wildcats have not lost. Their slate in the next two weeks will be significantly harder than the first two, with games at Portland State and at home against Idaho State and Northern Colorado. The matchup with the Golden Bears pits two of the top four Big Sky offenses against each other, and will be the first time any of the Big Sky’s top tier faces off. Jordan Davis has made a stronger opening bid for Player of the Year than fellow preseason All-Big Sky selection Jerrick Harding, but the Wildcats will trot out four of the game’s top five players, and should feel confident in how they stack up headed into the contest, though they’ll have to show their listless spurts against EWU, Idaho, and SUU are a thing of the past.
Northern Colorado
Record: 10-5
Conference: 4-0
Last Week: at Sac St. (70-65), at PSU (73-60), vs. Idaho (83-79 OT), vs. EWU (75-63)
Upcoming: vs. Montana (1/12), at MSU (1/14), at Weber St. (1/19), at ISU (1/21)
Key Players:
Jordan Davis, Guard, Sr.
28.5ppg, 4.5apg, 54.7 fg%
Bodie Hume, Guard, Fr.
17.5ppg, 43.2 3fg%, 9.3 3fga
Jonah Radebaugh, Guard, Jr.
6.3ppg, 4apg, 21.4 fg%
Northern Colorado did what they should have done through a soft opening slate. The Golden Bears were the lone team atop the Big Sky to avoid an upset loss on Saturday, though their overtime win over Idaho was more a matter of the Vandals squandering late game opportunities than Northern Colorado buckling down in the clutch.
That said, the Golden Bears should head into every matchup confident they have the best player on the floor. Jordan Davis is at this point running away with the Big Sky Player of the Year award while averaging 28 points on 19 shot attempts. He’s hitting threes at a rate he never has before (44% this year compared to 31% in conference last year), and in spite of being a volume shooter he does not appear to take almost any bad shots or contested shots. Davis is feasting on drives ending in layups and catch and shoot opportunities, which gives Northern Colorado reason to believe his numbers are just the product of a few strong opening performances. Freshman Bodie Hume lives behind the three point line, where all but two of his shots per game come from, but that makes him an ideal fit alongside Davis, who has been a willing passer throughout his career.
Northern Colorado does not have a night off in the next two weeks, including matchups against the other two league championship contenders. Northern Colorado joins Montana and Weber State as a top four scoring offense, while also having the best scoring defense in the league (a benefit of opening with Sacramento St., Idaho, and EWU). It will be fair to say Davis is the best player heading into both games, but also that Grizzlies and Wildcats suit up the next four top players in each matchup. Unless the role players for Northern Colorado can emerge from their early conference struggles (starting guards Trent Harris and Jonah Radebaugh are shooting a combined 25% on almost 14 shots per game), the Golden Bears will need huge games from Davis and Hume to hang with their top-of-the-league peers.
Montana
Record: 10-5
Conference: 3-1
Last Week: at NAU (86-73), at SUU (89-76), vs. Sac St. (87-56), vs. PSU (74-77 OT)
Upcoming: at EWU (1/10), at UNC (1/12), at Idaho (1/19)
Key Players:
Jamar Akoh, Forward, Sr.
20ppg, 10.5rpg, 62 fg%
Ahmaad Rorie, Guard, Sr.
18ppg, 50.9 fg%, 40 3fg%
Michael Oguine, Guard, Sr.
12.5ppg, 4.5rpg, 42.9 3fg%
Through the first three games the biggest question facing Montana appeared to be how much Ahmaad Rorie and Jamar Akoh would inhibit each other’s case for Player of the Year. The two combined for 46 points, 46 points, and 44 points while shooting almost 62% through the first three games of an admittedly soft opening schedule. Playing their fourth game in eight nights, things got ugly against Portland State, though the game was illustrative of how far ahead Montana is compared to their Big Sky peers. It took a career night from Portland State point guard Holland Woods (28 points on 11 shot attempts) and an 11-for-36 night from the combination of Rorie, Akoh, and preseason All-Big Sky pick Michael Oguine for the Vikings to end the Grizzlies 20-game home winning streak in overtime. Considering the Saturday struggles for all of the league’s top three teams, the Grizzlies’ loss is the least concerning. A single made three point attempt by either Rorie or Oguine (0-for-8 vs. PSU. The two are shooting a combined 41% from three in conference play) would have extended the Dahlberg Arena winning streak to 21, and of the teams knocking off or challenging the league’s top tier on Saturday, Portland State looks to be the best.
In the next two weeks, Both EWU and Idaho need Montana to be at their worst for those games to be much of a challenge, with the Vandals’ lack of frontcourt depth and turnover problems making them a uniquely good matchup for the Griz. At Northern Colorado, Montana will face their first true conference test. They’ll have to do a better job of slowing down Big Sky scoring leader Jordan Davis than they did with Viking point guard Holland Woods. Like Woods, Davis gets to the foul line in a way that could spell trouble for whoever is tasked with stopping him (likely a combination of Oguine, Rorie, and Bobby Moorehead). Unlike Woods, Davis is hitting from the field and three at volume (54.7 fg% on 19 shots per game). If the Portland State game was an aberration, which it appears to be (third worst offensive rating of the year, one of six total games with a defensive rating over 100), Montana should be a narrow favorite to grab a signature conference win.
Photo via Bigskyconf.com
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About the Author
Brian Marceau Brian Marceau writes fiction, teaches, and covers University of Idaho men's basketball for Tubs At The Club, all while voluntarily enduring Idaho Vandal football games. He is a retired connoisseur of $4-and-under wines, an unrepentant coffee snob, and a follower of Big Sky football and basketball.
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