Playoffs?? Griz will need some help
Going into this past weekend, the Montana Grizzlies were flying high. They were 5-1, had just come off of two high scoring wins, and their offense was humming. Things were so good that some in the press (*cough* this website) published stories about the how they would win not just the Big Sky Champinship, but maybe the NATIONAL championship.
Then last Saturday happened. The Griz got rolled by Northern Arizona down in Flagstaff, and now are in sixth place in the conference (but still #16 in the country) and face 6-1 and Big Sky leading Eastern Washington University this weekend on the road. A loss on Saturday would hurt, and possibly kill, the Griz’s playoff chances. Can the Griz get past EWU and will they make the playoffs?
Minty Coach (Cats fan): Are the Griz 2-2? A loss to EWU and the Griz miss the playoffs. Stitt happens!
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Man. I wrote a lot about how their schedule was weak, but it wasn’t supposed to apply until the EWU game. Appreciate the Griz making me look good this week. That 120+ straight points scored streak was cool too. How many wins did that get them in Big Sky play?
Minty Coach (Cats fan): One.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Stitt happens.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Here are the Big Sky Conference Standings as of now:
1. North Dakota 5-0
2. EWU 4-0
3. Weber St. 4-0
4. Cal Poly 3-1
5. NAU 3-2
6. UM 2-2
…
13. MSU 0-5
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): lol at the Cat dig.
Minty Coach (Cats fan): So, if the Griz lose to Eastern do you even make the playoffs? Three conference losses removes you from conference championship talk. Possibly the 4th best team in the Big Sky. The Griz have four games left, two at home and two on the road. I say the Griz go 2-2 and miss the playoffs.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Last year, the Big Sky sent three teams to the playoffs and no team had more than two losses in conference. UM lost to Weber, Portland State, Cal Poly and Liberty and made postseason at 6-2 in conference but 7-4 overall. We also padded our resume with the NDSU win and the drubbing of EWU. This year we could miss playoffs with a slightly better overall record but no real signature wins.
Minty Coach (Cats fan): So, does that require a closer look of Stitt and Co? Grounds for removal?
Z-Train (Griz fan): No for a few reasons: (1) Big Sky Conference parity is up and there are so many teams we won’t play likely possible co-champ North Dakota. (2) our overall record is fine; (3) we will likely win Cat/Griz; and (4) there’s incremental improvement and good signs for the future with our young guys (especially at WR and on D) showing Stitt had a good recruiting class.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): (5) the MSU case study of firing a good coach is playing out in front of our eyes this season.
Jasper Moonshot (Griz fan): If UM loses to EWU they no longer control their destiny. With 3 conference loses, UM will need some other team- probably Weber – to shit their bed like they ate every meal at a Great Falls Taco Treat for a week straight.
Saturday’s game has “Let Down Game” written all over it for Eastern Washington. Griz look defeated, but this will be a playoff game for UM. EWU can lose this game and still control their own destiny to the playoffs. I see the Griz coming out as focused as they will ever be. Even if they lose, I think the Griz can make the playoffs if they lose to EWU but win out against Idaho St, No Colorado, and MSU.
Minty Coach (Cats fan): Eastern didn’t run all over the Cats, so if UM can take away their passing game just a little they can beat them.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): There is an opportunity there. EWU has allowed the fourth most sacks in the Big Sky and the Griz have the second most sacks in the Big Sky. Also, looking at BSC Stats, Montana has the WORST 4th down conversion percentage in the Big Sky at 40% – Eastern is second worst at 46.7%.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): I think we’re focusing too much on Eastern Washington. Sure, they are a really good team, but there are five schools ranked ahead of the Griz. Isn’t that a problem?
Jasper Moonshot (Griz fan): No. The Griz will make playoffs with 3 conference losses. We might even host a game! We move tickets. The Griz are more popular among the FCS playoff committee than Greg Gianforte is among people who think dinosaurs are a governmental hoax.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Let’s also remember Jasper said the Griz were going to go undefeated and also win a National Championship… sooooo…
Z-Train (Griz fan): Well, let’s look at the schools that are ahead of the Griz:
In Big Sky Conference play, Weber State has beat UC-Davis, Portland State, Montana State, and Southern Utah. Right now, that’s the bottom half of the conference. Their remaining games are at North Dakota, vs. NAU, vs. Cal Poly, and at Idaho State. I don’t consider them a top three team in the BSC based on that schedule to this point. I think they come out with two conference losses, likely Cal Poly and North Dakota. Their nonconference slate was Utah State (45-6 loss), South Dakota (52-49 loss in 2 OT), and Sac St (14-7 win in one of those weird nonconference games against conference teams). Utah St. is 3-4 and South Dakota is 4-3.
North Dakota is 6-2 overall, 5-0 in the BSC. They lost at Stony Brook 13-9 (#22 in most recent FCS poll), lost at FBS Bowling Green 27-26 (1-7, with their only win coming over UND), beat South Dakota at home 47-44 (quality win), barely beat MSU, beat Cal Poly at home 31-24 (Cal Poly was pretty beat up), and beat Sacramento State, Southern Utah, and Idaho State with varying degrees of comfort. Their remaining games are Weber at home, UNC away, and NAU at home. UND’s schedule is tailor made for a BSC championship.
EWU has Montana at home and Cal Poly away the next two weeks.
NAU finishes with Weber, North Dakota, and Southern Utah. Besides UM, they don’t have a “quality” win and have a bad loss to Northern Colorado and a not so bad loss to Western Illinois (#15 currently). NAU isn’t in the top 25 and the Griz are still at #16. Maybe not for long at #16, but still are so they may have the edge on playoffs and NAU could easily pick up two more conference losses.
I see a fair chance that all three undefeated BSC teams take at least one conf. loss. Either Weber or North Dakota will, of course, when they play each other. Weber could go 0-3 realistically playing North Dakota, NAU, and Cal Poly to finish out the year.
Minty Coach (Cats fan): So, who wins the Big Sky and who goes to the playoffs?
Z-Train (Griz fan): Fox Sports projects the Big Sky Conference sends four: EWU, Cal Poly, UM, and North Dakota. They are, apparently, also suspect of Weber’s cakewalk slate. I say three, maybe four, go from BSC. EWU and North Dakota tie for Conference champs and then some mix of Cal Poly, Weber, and UM (UM being by far the bubble team with likelihood of 3 conference losses). If UM beats EWU, I say they are a playoff lock with a quality win and WaGriz in a sparsely populated western FCS. That’s a huge if.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Ugh. The weather is supposed to be decent this weekend, and I’m going to be inside refreshing the Gamecast of the Weber State vs. North Dakota game. This is what my life has become…thanks a lot Norther Arizona. But for your insane performance last week, I might be a happier person.
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