Big Sky Conference Gone Wild! Real! Raw! Uncut! [superfans]
This season, the Big Sky Conference is absolutely stacked with good teams. They are knocking off FBS teams and beating up on each other. The Montana Mint Superfans discuss what this means for the Bobcats and Grizzlies, preview the Cats matchup at Portland State, and give their thoughts on sports betting.
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Scotty Mint (Cats fan): The Griz are enjoying a much needed bye week this weekend, recovering from their awful loss to Weber State last Saturday. The Cats have a HUGE game this weekend. MSU is 3-2 overall and 2-1 in Conference play. They travel to Portland State who is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in conference play. Both teams are ranked in the Top 20 nationally. Portland State has the top ranked defense in the Big Sky. The Cats have the top ranked offense.
Coach (Cats fan): I’m concerned about this weekend’s game. Not only are the Cats a poor road team, but Portland State seems to be legit. They have played tough against a brutal schedule: Washington State (FBS), Idaho State (solid), North Dakota (solid), North Texas (FBS), and MSU (hopefully solid). The only cupcake is Western Oregon. Also forgot to mention that they beat both FBS schools they played. My god.
Clarence Toole (Griz fan): You also forgot to mention that the Cats have not won outside of Gallatin County in over a year. Their last road victory was on October 11, 2014 against a dreadful UC Davis squad.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Growing up playing Little League and, ever the optimist, I’d always think my team was really good. It didn’t matter if we went on a three game slide or our pitching got shelled I’d think we were just about to hit our stride. One year I was on a particularly bad team and as I did every year I told my dad, who was the coach, “I think we are way better than our record.” He looked at me and said, “I don’t think we are this year.” That was the first time he told me cold truth regarding how our season was probably going to go.
All of that is to say we will know more about the Cats after this Portland State game this week…hell, I think this is their season. It’ll either show us the Bobcats playing like the team we are expected them to be or it’ll be like my dad telling me that it’s just not going to be our year.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): I love the story and I agree. This game is huge for the Cats in terms of setting the tone for the rest of the season. If they win, you have to consider them the second best team in the Big Sky Conference. If they lose, they fall into a group of five or so teams competing for 2-3 at large bids.
Clarence Toole (Cats fan): Earlier this week, I spoke to a Cats fan that was so cocksure about Bobcat victory that I almost asked a classmate of his to check is temperature. I’m not sure all Cat fans realize they are 7 point underdogs. Or how good Portland State’s defense is…So far they have held opponents to just 11.4 points and 194.2 yards per game.
Watching a confident Bobcat fan is like watching a dog going to the vet; they’re all super excited for the car ride until they realize they’re about to get neutered. I believe defense trumps offense, and I think Portland State’s defense is going to do neuter the Cat’s offense this weekend.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Some Bobcat fans (not anyone here, because I constantly remind them) forget how shaky the MSU defense is. They are allowing 6.46 yards PER PLAY!! Wow. Though to their credit, it is not as bad as Northwestern State’s 8.02 yards per play.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): I’m sorry, but the Cats are playing better than lackluster. They bounced back from their loss to Northern Arizona, handling their business against Sacramento State. Their defense actually held Sacramento State to under 800 points.
I heard an interview with Coach Ash about the Cats two losses (at EWU, at Northern Arizona). He chalked EWU up to being beat by a better team. As far as Northern Arizona goes, he said the team was coming off a big win versus Cal Poly and that they had some travel delays that didn’t allow them to get their walkthroughs done before the game. Sounds like they were just off from the beginning… but that’s what road games are about. It’s about traveling, adjusting, and playing away from your comfort zone.
Ash also noted the team needed to get a road win at Portland State to gain some confidence.
Z-Train (Griz Fan): WHAT IS GOING ON THIS YEAR?!?!?!?!?? Portland State has as many FBS wins as the Cats have FCS wins?!?!?! Besides the loss to North Dakota, Portland State has been rolling folks. They beat FBS North Texas so bad that the coach was fired after the game!
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Portland State’s 66-7 drubbing of North Texas was the LARGEST MARGIN OF VICTORY EVER for an FCS team over an FBS team.
Z-Train (Griz fan): But it’s not just Portland State…everything in the Big Sky Conference is weird this year.
North Dakota beat FBS Wyoming, gets trounced by North Dakota State, beats Portland State and UC Davis, and gets beat by sad sack Idaho State?
Southern Utah outplayed and barely got beat by FBS Utah State, gets shellacked by South Dakota State, and then gets in on the shellacking with a 44-0 pounding of Weber State.
Idaho State gets 80 points (!) put up on them by UNLV, gets doubled up on by Cal Poly, and then beats North Dakota.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): The Big Sky is stacked. Last year, the Big Sky went 0-17 against FBS teams, but this year we have three victories and almost had four. It’s fun to watch. It will be interesting to see how many Big Sky teams can crack the tourney. Last year we got three. The year before we got four. In 2014, the Missouri Valley Conference got five!
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): It is hard to know what the hell is going on with this conference. There is no pattern at all besides EWU finding ways to win. EWU was down at half to a very bad Sacramento State team, stopped a 2 point conversion versus Poly to win, and held on to beat the Cats after letting them get within 5. I think EWU wins out and gets the auto-bid. It’s the only thing I can count on.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Literally every team in the Big Sky, except EWU, has a head scratching loss.
Clarence Toole (Griz fan): It is a really competitive conference this year. Every team has a pretty hard fastball. Including Weber State.
Despite the narrative, everyone—including myself—wanted to believe, Weber State wasn’t volunteering to play the role of the Washington Generals. They brought everything they had against Montana last week. For example, they came out on the first play with some ole Tom Foolery, catching our secondary off guard with a double pass. And they ran the ball down right down the throat of the Griz, which is impressive because bear’s apparently have a bad gag reflex.
Weber’s Run-to-Pass ratio was 61:16. The racked up 266 yards on the ground with an average pop of 4.1 yards/rush. Isn’t the Griz Defense that’s supposed to be dominating? Maybe this is what happens when your offense sputters, loses a quarterback, and your defense has a down week? (The conspiracy theorist in me wants to discuss if the Griz Defense rolled over against Weber State on purpose to send a message to the offense).
With the Griz offense looking sadder than a guy buying a single Four Loco on a Saturday night, could their bye week come at a better time?
Z-Train (Griz fan): Outside of the Weber State pants poop, Montana’s wins and losses don’t look that crazy. Wins over North Dakota State, Northern Arizona, and UC-Davis, and losses to Cal Poly and Liberty are pretty respectable.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Yeah. I get Clarence’s point, but I still don’t think Weber State is a good football team. The loss last week coupled with the loss of yet another QB has me worried for the Griz.
Clarence Toole (Griz fan): Rumor has it that if Chad “Chaz” Chalich comes back, it won’t be until VERY late in the season. And I heard they will likely take their time with his recovery because Brady Gustafson will be back slinging the pigskin before Chaztidy Belt can go live.
Z-Train (Griz fan): It will be a wild ride if McKenna Simis is at the reins the rest of the year. I just watched a short YouTube of his senior season. Looks athletic, has happy feet, throws a nice ball. Huge upside, huge downside. As Samuel L. Jackson would say when rebooting the system to get those fences back online, HOLD ON TO YER BUTTS.
Also, as an aside, I used to think Griz had the tough early schedule, but check out Northern Iowa’s: opened at FBS Iowa St., home for EWU (#7), at Cal Poly (borderline top 25 and the top rushing team in the country), at Illinois State (#4), and at NDSU (#2/3). That’s insane and they somehow came out of it 2-3. Does any team in the country do better?
Scotty Mint (Cats fan): Maybe Eastern Washington. They are legit. By the way, did you see they are 14-point favorites at Idaho St? We thought Idaho State was going to be tough this year.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Betting is lame. It is taking over sports discussions. All anyone talks about this line or that line or Fanduel or some horseshit. I don’t care.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): I strongly disagree. Vegas lines provide a nice indicator going into games. It is just one data point that we consume to discuss sports. And it might be the most interesting data point because it includes (1) what experts actually think will happen in a game and (2) what the mood is from the general population going into a game. It is like combining the stock market and a presidential poll into a single understandable number.
I think Z-Train is just grumpy and needs a snack.
Z-Train (Griz fan): I just happen to have strong opinions, I’m not grumpy! I think gambling sucks all the humanity and beauty out of sports and sports writing. Normal Mailer or George Plimpton would be run out of town by sabermetric fan boys and wannabe Wall Street quants reducing everything to algorithms and scatter plots and VORP. Sometimes I don’t want everything to be science and stats, I want there to be some goddamn human emotion.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): I find betting lines to be a great conversation starter and they give a somewhat unbiased opinion on what the experts think will happen. Yes, the line moves as the public puts in their bets but that initial line has to be set right.
Coach (Cats fan): We should do a Snickers commercial with Z-Train! Keeping his blood sugar levels high has to be his biggest demon in life.
Hot Take Nate (Cats fan): Z-Train wouldn’t eat a Snickers because the current logo is too new school and he longs for the days of the simple red border without all the flash and sabermetrics.
Z-Train (Griz fan): I just have independent opinions. I’m not being grumpy. My snicker commercial would consist of me eating a snickers, pausing, and saying that gambling still sucks.
Coach (Cats fan): Ha! Fun gambling fact: On my 30th birthday, I put a five in a machine in Utica, Montana (home of the infamous Kash Perry) and pushed play. I hit 7 of 7 numbers and won $800. I tipped the waitress, bought an ice cold Mich Ultra and went on my way. Greatest birthday EVER.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Now that we are completely off topic, check out this hot take on the state of basketball from the 1950s.
Hot takes from the 1950s are great. This is from Shirley Povich in 1958 on why basketball is in decline. pic.twitter.com/6Y8Ddk7LnL
— Luke Epplin (@LukeEpplin) October 14, 2015
Dibs on Gooney Birds for my fantasy basketball team name.
Z-Train (Griz fan): Stuffing baskets like a taxidermist!
Scotty Mint (Cats fan): Ladder-sized groundlings. So great. Those burns were eloquent and surprisingly avoided racism.
Bear Tycoon (Griz fan): Do you think in 60 years, people will mock the opinions share here on the Mint every week? I think unquestionably yes.
Bonus Content: A Message from Montana Parlay
Hey Montana Mint Gamblers –
I’m on the road this weekend and the Griz have a bye, so thought I’d cheat on my weekly picks article (I’m 8-3 against the spread by the way) and insert myself into the Superfan article.
Hey Hot Take Nate, did you like that Weber St game? You had better gloat as much as you can today; Cats are 7-point dogs tomorrow vs Portland State and their great defense. I think the Cats will struggle. PSU 30 Cats 20. Portland State wins and covers.
– Montana Parlay
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