The Ultimate Cat/Griz Gambling and Game Preview
It’s the biggest game of the year in Montana, and it is even better when there is money on the line.
First things first: what’s the point spread? Cat fans may be surprised that the Griz are favored by 7 points. Why are the Griz favored by a touchdown when the Cats are ranked higher? For one thing, home field advantage comes into play. Typically, if two even teams are playing, the home team will get 3-4 points in home field advantage. The Cat Griz line actually opened at 5, which says that odds makers view the teams as relatively even. The line then moved to 7, either because the Griz faithful were loading up on their team, or injury reports moved the line (Jordy Nelson is playing, Dakota Prukop is out…. probably).
How high scoring of a game will it be? We have strength against strength (Griz D, Cat O) and weakness vs weakness (Griz O, Cat D). Offshore books have set the over/under at 61. That means if you bet the over, the total points between the two teams must be higher than 61, which would be quite a bit higher than the last few meetings between the two teams. Not since 2007 have 60 or more points been scored in this rivalry match-up.
Both coaches seem to take less risk offensively in the biggest game of the year, and the big game appears to bring out the best in both defenses, so I like playing the under and have done so the last few years. As for the spread… I’ll get to that soon enough.
Game preview.
More is at stake than usual as pundits predict that only two teams from the Big Sky will make the playoffs:Eastern Washington (who beat both teams from Montana) and the winner of Cat/Griz. These stakes sweeten the pot, as both teams are playing for more than statewide pride in the oldest rivalry west of the Mississippi.
Bobcat Keys to Victory:
Play to your strengths: this means possess the ball on offense as much as possible, as in DON’T PUNT THE DAMN BALL. Here’s my recommendation for whenever the Cats are near midfield: 4th and 1- GO FOR IT, 4th and 2- GO FOR IT, 4th and 6- GO FOR IT. Playing the field position game with a below average defense on the road is a losing endeavor. Why won’t the cats go for it with gusto? It’s a safer play for a coach to punt the ball; if MSU doesn’t get the first down, Ash takes the heat. Potential Wild Card Factor: Prukop starts, or comes in for a few special packages.
Grizzly Keys to Victory:
When you have a strong defense, a veteran QB, and the biggest crowd in the FCS you just have to win the turnover battle and limit big plays by the opposition. The Griz will look to control the tempo with the run game and break it open with the play-action pass.
Prediction:
The Griz have not won this game at home since 2008. Mick Delaney just announced his retirement at the end of the year, which leads me to believe he will be willing to take more risks in this game than Rob Ash. The Cats are 2-2 on the road, whereas the Griz are 5-0 at home. It’s hard to get much info out of common opponents, but the Griz had a slightly tougher schedule. I see this game coming down to a missed extra point, made two point conversion, or big 4th down decision. All of these factors lead me to believe:
Griz 31 Cats 27
Hopefully this Cat fan is wrong.
About the Author
Montana Parlay Born in Billings. Attended MSU. Likes sports, enjoys gambling, loves Montana. Purveyor of wit and bullshit. Wannabe poet, occasional writer.
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